eLearing tool selection: Learning Circuits Big Question

I have thought about the Massive question of the month (July) and I think as with anything, moderation is key. I agree with Andrew's comment that it is important for us as professional's to keep up with the most important development tools. I personally think that there will be a natural 'shake out' of tools and that a few (maybe 10-20) will predominate over time. It is not realistic or feasible for developers to be familiar with a large number of tools as most of the 'major' tools can be used to replicate the functionality of smaller tools. This is pretty major generalization, I know. Please give me some examples of where this doesn't hold true.

Let's look at the points to consider:
How does the eLearning design process need to change to accommodate such a wide variety of tools?
I don't subscribe to an 'eLearning design process'. We have a specific
design process that is a modification of the most predominant approaches to eLearning development. Our approach is based on modular rapid prototyping. This approach is larger than the set of tools that are used. In a sense the process is independent of the tools.

How does the tool selection process need to change?
I think vendors will naturally gravitate to what works for them. Having said that, tool selection may be influenced by the customer's experience with tools that they have either used internally or that they have heard other people use either successfully or unsuccessfully. Customers are more informed about tools and this is a major change from 10 years ago.

What should learning professionals do to stay up-to-speed?
Read, research and ideally develop materials using different tools.

Do they need to learn new tools constantly?
Again, I think vendors will for the most part stay with what works for them, BUT and this is a big but they will be pushed by vendors to adapt internal tools or tools that are widely used within the organization. There is a cost associated with adopting new tools so most vendors will not change unless there is a long term benefit.

Can they stick with a few tools?
See all the thoughts above.

Will this trend continue? If so, then what does that imply for us?
It seems like we are at a watershed with what many experts refer to as Web 2.0 or eLearning 2.0. Will this trend continue? I think that if these tools are able to influence and change the way that work is done, then yes the trend will continue. If blogging continues to be as big as it is at the moment then people will continue to use it as a resource. I'm sure I will regret making this prediction, but I see the hype around blogging decreasing over the next 5 years. What about the other web 2.0 tools?

Let me grab my crystal ball real quick, hang on........